Market Reports, Investors, Big Sky

Big Sky 2026 Q3 Market Report

Published on Oct 21, 2026

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Tim Drain

Tim Drain

Regional Manager of Business Development

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Dear Partners,

With autumn here and winter on its way, it’s time once again to provide an update on Big Sky’s short-term rental market. This report provides an overview of Key Performance Indicator (KPI) trends for Q3 2026 as compared to Q3 2025. We will also provide a look ahead to how we are seeing the remainder of the year and the start of the ski season shaping up.

Report Sections

Market Overview
Market KPIs
Looking Ahead
Glossary

Market Overview

Big Sky saw a nice boost in visitation and Occupancy in Q3 this year across all KPIs we report on. The weather certainly helped, with minimal impact from wildfire smoke and warm, sunny weather extending through September. Not only did the market’s Occupancy rate increase, but supply also increased with an additional 9.8% nights available. This reflects a strong and resilient market despite the increase in fuel and travel costs.  Four and 5-bedroom properties led the market, with 1-bedroom properties a close third, indicating equally strong demand from larger families and smaller groups.  

Key Performance Indicators  

The Data

The below data was sourced from Key Data, a third-party short-term rental analytics provider sourcing authoritative data from 10 property managers and from privately managed rentals with +/- 1,350 properties, all of which are located within the BSRAD boundary. Key Data refers to the market within the BSRAD boundary, as Greater Big Sky.  The three KPIs that we focus on are:

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR) 2026 Big Sky

The Big Sky STR market saw a nominal 1.8% increase in ADR. With a 9.8% increase in supply, rates remained strong but competitive in order for operators to capitalize on the demand we saw and earn their market share. Visitors to Big Sky continue to prioritize luxury properties and memorable experiences—but also appear to be seeking value where they can, as cost of living continues to rise.

Greater Big Sky

  • Q3 2026: $472 (+1.3%)
  • Q3 2025: $466

Adjusted Paid Occupancy

Adjusted Occupancy Rate (ADR) 2026 Big Sky

Occupancy increased YoY for Q3 by 6.1%.  With the 9.8% increase in supply vs. Q3 2025, this again reflects the continued increase in demand for Big Sky during peak months.  Following the trend of the last two summers, Town Center and Meadow Village properties accounted for the majority of occupancy as visitors want to be close to our summer attractions-concerts, summer events, fishing access, and Yellowstone National Park.

Greater Big Sky

  • Q3 2026: 31.3 % (+6.1%)
  • Q3 2025: 29.5%

Adjusted Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR)

Adjusted Occupancy Rate (ADR) 2026 Big Sky

RevPAR increased an even 8.0% over Q3 2025. This, combined with the relatively flat ADR, modest increase in Occupancy, and increase in supply, signals that supply and demand are coming back into balance. It also indicates that STR owners and operators have embraced more fluid rates to strike an optimal balance between ADR and Occupancy to not leave money on the table—but also not price properties higher than what the market will bear.

Greater Big Sky

  • Q3 2026: $148 (+8.0%)
  • Q3 2025: $138

Natural Retreats VS The Market

Natural Retreats vs the Market 2026 Q3

Natural Retreats achieved RevPAR of $228 vs. the market’s $148. Our RevPAR of $228 represents year-over-year growth of 31.0%. This is in large part due to our portfolio mix relative to the rest of the market. Natural Retreats focuses on managing the homes and providing the services that the luxury traveler visiting Big Sky is looking for: high-end homes with sought-after amenities, amazing views, and a Guest Experience team ready to assist with experiences they come to Big Sky to enjoy. The collaboration between our on-site Management team, expert Revenue Management and in-house Marketing teams allows us to maximize revenue for all of our homes.

Looking Ahead

As we kick off Q4, the market continues to pace slightly ahead of Q4 2025. ADR is currently down approximately 5% compared to same time last year, while Occupancy is up 9.0%, resulting in a modest 2.3% RevPAR increase.

Bookings are coming in for our usual peak dates—December holidays, Presidents Week, and Spring Break weeks. Bookings for off-peak dates are trickling in as well, but these are typically booked within a shorter booking window than peak dates. There does also appear to be some trepidation among typical repeat guests to Big Sky that experienced our lackluster winter last ski season and the Super El Nino forecast being less favorable for Big Sky compared to other ski destinations that stand to benefit from that weather pattern.  However, with Big Sky Resort recently receiving yet another top ranking, this time from Conde Naste, Big Sky still stands to continue to grow its market share and see another increase in visitation.

KEY-DATA KPI DEFINITIONS

Glossary

 

  • ADR (Average Daily Rate) measures the average Unit Revenue paid by guests for the Guest Nights in a given time period. ADR = Unit Revenue (Nightly) / Guest Nights.
  • APO (Adjusted Paid Occupancy) calculates the percentage of Guest Nights out of the total nights available for guests to book, or the Nights Available. Adjusted Paid Occupancy = Guest Nights / Nights Available.
  • Adjusted RevPAR (Revenue Per Available “Room”) is calculated by multiplying the Adjusted Paid Occupancy % by the ADR. A critical KPI for measuring revenue performance, Adjusted RevPAR takes into account both the average rate at which you booked the property (ADR) and the number of nights it was booked less owner nights and holds (Adjusted Paid Occupancy).  This provides a better indicator of overall performance when compared to looking at the ADR or the Occupancy alone. Adjusted RevPAR = Adjusted Paid Occupancy % x ADR (or) Total Unit Revenue / Total Available Paid Nights in a given period.
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Partner with Natural Retreats

We’re actively seeking partnerships with real estate professionals who want to bring added value to their clients. Whether your buyers are exploring vacation home investment or sellers need a compelling income story, we are here to help with:

  • Complimentary revenue projections
  • Pre-market rental assessments
  • Seamless onboarding for new homeowner clients
  • Consultation of current short-term rental regulations

 

At Natural Retreats, we provide expert vacation rental management designed to drive returns and preserve property value. We're actively partnering with local agents to help buyers and sellers unlock the full potential of short-term rentals.

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Vacation Rental Management

Discover how partnering with Natural Retreats can help you succeed. Our Homeowner Experience Guide includes all you need to know about vacation rental management in destinations.

 

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