Market Reports, Investors, Big Sky

Big Sky 2026 Q2 Market Report

Published on Jul 24, 2026

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Tim Drain

Tim Drain

Regional Manager of Business Development

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Dear Partners,

With a wet spring behind us, we at Natural Retreats want to share the most up-to-date short-term rental data, along with our perspective on how it applies to the Big Sky market. This report provides an overview of key performance indicator (KPI) trends for Q2 2026 as compared to Q2 2025. We will also provide a look ahead at how we are seeing the summer shaping up.

Report Sections

Market Overview
Market KPIs
Looking Ahead
Glossary

Market Overview

Q2 is historically one of the slowest and lowest revenue generating times of the year in Big Sky, as we wind down the final few weeks of the ski season and many businesses pause or slow their operations during mud season. Locals often take advantage of this down time for their own vacations. With kids still in school the majority of Q2, those who do travel to Big Sky are typically smaller groups here for shorter stays. This is reflected in the data, with 1 and 2-bedroom short-term rental properties seeing the highest Occupancy for the quarter.  The Big Sky market saw a slight YoY increase in Occupancy, while recording a larger increase in ADR which resulted in RevPAR seeing a more significant quarterly increase.

Key Performance Indicators  

The Data

The data below was sourced from Key Data, a third-party short-term rental analytics provider sourcing authoritative data from 10 property managers and from privately managed rentals with +/- 1,350 properties, all of which are located within the BSRAD boundary. Key Data refers to the market within the BSRAD boundary as Greater Big Sky. 

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR) 2026 Big Sky

ADR increased to just under 20% over Q2 2025. Natural Retreats achieved an ADR of $843 compared to the Market average of $462. This was driven in large part by a large wedding party that booked many of our Spanish Peaks and Town Center properties in June, allowing us to lock in high rates well in advance during an otherwise slow period. This meaningful increase in ADR relative to a much smaller increase in Occupancy further highlights the trend we have been seeing of travelers continuing to prioritize luxury properties with proximity to world class amenities and experiences.

Greater Big Sky

  • Q1 2026: $462 (+19.7%)
  • Q1 2025: $301

Adjusted Paid Occupancy

Adjusted Occupancy Rate (ADR) 2026 Big Sky

The Big Sky market saw a more modest increase in occupancy of 4.9%. This is compared to Q2 2025, which was down by about the same amount over the year before. The spring shoulder season continues to be generally hit or miss, and can be skewed in one direction or the other by even a few quality bookings.

Greater Big Sky

  • Q1 2026: 17.2% (+4.9%)
  • Q1 2025: 16.4%

Adjusted Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR)

The increase in RevPAR over Q2 2025 continues to reflect a market with increasing interest and demand from luxury travelers willing to pay for premium accommodations and experiences. It also reveals a market of professional vacation rental managers leveraging increasingly reliable data to drive decision making around rate and revenue management.  Guests continue to seek out luxury accommodations with amenities and views to create memorable experiences. 

Greater Big Sky

  • Q2 2026: $81 (+26.6%)
  • Q2 2025: $64

Looking Ahead

As we kick off Q3, the market continues to pace slightly ahead of Q3 2025, with an 8.6% increase as of the time of this report. Occupancy is flat compared to Q3 of last year, and RevPAR is up by 7.6% for the same time period.

Natural Retreats is seeing double-digit growth in our pacing relative to same time last year for Q3. Our ADR currently sits at $902—a 13.3% increase over Q3 2025 and 62% higher than the Market. Our Occupancy is up 16.8% over Q3 2025 while our RevPAR is pacing 33.1% ahead of last year. All of this data suggests that Big Sky is still a sought-after location with demand for premium accommodations and experiences. Natural Retreats’ data is reflective of the investments we have made in our revenue management team and the software they utilize, our new website and the efforts of our marketing team, and a new fully integrated tech stack creating operational efficiencies that allow our people to spend more time on the important aspects of their jobs and less time chasing tasks.

KEY-DATA KPI DEFINITIONS

Glossary

 

  • ADR (Average Daily Rate) measures the average Unit Revenue paid by guests for the Guest Nights in a given time period. ADR = Unit Revenue (Nightly) / Guest Nights.
  • APO (Adjusted Paid Occupancy) calculates the percentage of Guest Nights out of the total nights available for guests to book, or the Nights Available. Adjusted Paid Occupancy = Guest Nights / Nights Available.
  • Adjusted RevPAR (Revenue Per Available “Room”) is calculated by multiplying the Adjusted Paid Occupancy % by the ADR. A critical KPI for measuring revenue performance, Adjusted RevPAR takes into account both the average rate at which you booked the property (ADR) and the number of nights it was booked less owner nights and holds (Adjusted Paid Occupancy).  This provides a better indicator of overall performance when compared to looking at the ADR or the Occupancy alone. Adjusted RevPAR = Adjusted Paid Occupancy % x ADR (or) Total Unit Revenue / Total Available Paid Nights in a given period.
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We’re actively seeking partnerships with real estate professionals who want to bring added value to their clients. Whether your buyers are exploring vacation home investment or sellers need a compelling income story, we are here to help with:

  • Complimentary revenue projections
  • Pre-market rental assessments
  • Seamless onboarding for new homeowner clients
  • Consultation of current short-term rental regulations

 

At Natural Retreats, we provide expert vacation rental management designed to drive returns and preserve property value. We're actively partnering with local agents to help buyers and sellers unlock the full potential of short-term rentals.

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