Realtor Connection

Brandon Grande

Manager of Business Development

Dear Partners,

We hope you had a great Q2 and enjoyed another wonderful summer in the Flathead Valley. We want to share the most up-to-date short-term rental data, along with our perspective on how it applies to our market. This review provides an overview of Key Performance Indicator (KPI) trends for Q3 2026 as compared to Q3 2025. It also offers a look ahead to how we are seeing the fall shoulder season shaping up.

Market Overview

As summer comes to a close in the Flathead Valley, Whitefish’s short-term rental market wrapped up a strong Q3, outperforming Q3 2025 across all key performance metrics. RevPAR led the way, increasing an impressive 25% YoY, reflecting continued demand from travelers eager to experience the Valley’s wide range of outdoor activities, from boating and floating to hiking, biking, and everything in between.

With ADR also rising significantly compared to the same period last year, guests demonstrated a continued willingness to pay a premium for luxury accommodations, particularly properties offering thoughtful amenities and elevated experiences. The pricing power we observed in 2025 has clearly carried into Q3 2026, as travelers continue to prioritize quality, location, and overall experience. Properties in and around Whitefish, including Downtown Whitefish, maintained strong performance, while homes in more outlying areas and lakefront properties recorded some of their highest revenue totals to date as the broader market in the Valley came online for the summer.

2025 Key Performance Indicators


The Data

The data for the review was sourced from Key Data, a third-party short-term rental analytics provider sourcing authoritative data from 37 property managers and from privately managed rentals with +/- 650 properties—all of which are located within the Flathead Valley. 

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR) 2026 Whitefish

The Whitefish market saw a 6.7% increase in ADR compared to Q2 2025, reflecting a more measured approach to pricing as property managers balanced higher nightly rates with maintaining strong Occupancy. Despite modest rate growth, traveler demand remained steady, driven by the Valley’s outdoor attractions and major summer events such as the Fourth of July and Under the Big Sky Festival.

 

Q3 2026: $447 (+6.7%)

Q3 2025: $419

Adjusted Paid Occupancy

Adjusted Paid Occupancy 2026 Whitefish

The Whitefish market saw a strong 17.1% increase in Occupancy compared to Q3 2025. This growth, coupled with rising ADR, suggests that professional short-term rental managers are successfully balancing pricing strategies and length-of-stay requirements to maximize homeowner revenue. By strategically increasing rates without pricing properties out of the market, managers are capturing stronger demand while maintaining healthy Occupancy levels.

 

Q3 2026: 63.1% (+17.3%)

Q3 2025: 53.8%

Adjusted Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR)

RevPar 2026 Whitefish

The Whitefish market saw a substantial 24.9% increase in RevPAR compared to Q3 2025—an increase driven by growth in both ADR and Occupancy. This strong performance reflects the increasingly sophisticated revenue management strategies employed by professional short-term rental managers who are leveraging more accurate and detailed market data alongside local expertise to make informed pricing and length-of-stay decisions. By strategically balancing rates with occupancy demand, managers are optimizing revenue and maximizing returns for homeowners.

 

Q3 2026: $282 (+25.3%)

Q3 2025: $225

Natural Retreats vs The Market

RevPar vs market 2026 Whitefish

While Natural Retreats’ ADR of $484 outperformed the market average of $447, APO declined slightly by 3.1% in Q3. Limited flights into Glacier Park International Airport due to runway resurfacing during the Valley’s peak summer season contributed to booking cancellations in July, and shorter than average booking windows over the summer. However, our Revenue Management team successfully offset slightly lower APO by strategically increasing ADR, helping drive stronger revenue for homeowners.

While properties on Whitefish Mountain Resort typically take a back seat to the broader market during the summer months, several of our Big Mountain homes still recorded some of their strongest revenue numbers to date. Our larger 5+ bedroom properties experienced tremendous growth, particularly our luxury lakefront homes, as families and groups traveled to the Valley for weddings, reunions, and summer gatherings. Visitors continued to take advantage of everything the Flathead has to offer—from lake activities to mountain adventures. Glacier National Park visitation also increased 8.8% year-over-year, with the park on pace to challenge its all-time annual visitation record. Meanwhile, our 3–4 bedroom properties maintained steady demand from families and smaller groups, delivering meaningful revenue gains throughout the summer.

Despite some early challenges in 2026, disciplined rate management and strategic marketing efforts have helped deliver strong revenue growth for our homeowners. The market gained significant momentum as the summer progressed. Stronger performance in August and September helped close out Q3 on a high note, with many properties across our portfolio achieving some of their best revenue results to date. These gains reflect the strength of our revenue management strategies, the continued efforts of our in-house marketing team, and our ability to adapt to changing market conditions while maximizing returns for homeowners.

Looking Ahead

With another quarter still ahead, 2026 is shaping up to be a strong year for the Flathead Valley vacation rental market. Our dedicated Marketing team is focused on maximizing revenue opportunities through targeted holiday promotions and strategic marketing initiatives. By leveraging advanced dynamic pricing technology and our global reach among luxury travelers, we aim to drive additional bookings and finish the year strong for our homeowners. Combined with our local operations team’s commitment to exceptional property care and guest service, this approach not only encourages repeat stays and drives revenue but also helps increase net owner income through proactive maintenance and cost management.

While booking activity has naturally begun to taper off heading into the fall shoulder-season, warmer-than-average temperatures in early October have continued to generate last-minute reservations. Looking ahead, the Natural Retreats team is actively preparing for the upcoming winter and holiday season, with our operations team ensuring properties are winter-ready and positioned to welcome guests. With a strong summer behind us, we look forward to building on that momentum and delivering another successful 2026–27 ski season.

KEY-DATA KPI DEFINITIONS

Glossary

 

  • ADR (Average Daily Rate) measures the average Unit Revenue paid by guests for the Guest Nights in a given time period. ADR = Unit Revenue (Nightly) / Guest Nights.
  • APO (Adjusted Paid Occupancy) calculates the percentage of Guest Nights out of the total nights available for guests to book, or the Nights Available. Adjusted Paid Occupancy = Guest Nights / Nights Available.
  • Adjusted RevPAR (Revenue Per Available “Room”) is calculated by multiplying the Adjusted Paid Occupancy % by the ADR. A critical KPI for measuring revenue performance, Adjusted RevPAR takes into account both the average rate at which you booked the property (ADR) and the number of nights it was booked less owner nights and holds (Adjusted Paid Occupancy).  This provides a better indicator of overall performance when compared to looking at the ADR or the Occupancy alone. Adjusted RevPAR = Adjusted Paid Occupancy % x ADR (or) Total Unit Revenue / Total Available Paid Nights in a given period.
Home on hillside in whitefish montana

Partner with Natural Retreats

We’re actively seeking partnerships with real estate professionals who want to bring added value to their clients. Whether your buyers are exploring vacation home investment or sellers need a compelling income story, we’re here to help with:

  • Complimentary revenue projections
  • Pre-market rental assessments
  • Seamless onboarding for new homeowner clients
  • Consultation of current short term rental regulations


At Natural Retreats, we provide expert vacation rental management designed to drive returns and preserve property value. We're actively partnering with local agents to help buyers and sellers unlock the full potential of short-term rentals.