Market Reports, Investors, Big Sky

Big Sky Q3 Market Report 2025

Published on Oct 18, 2025

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Tim Drain

Regional Manager of Business Development

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Dear Trusted Partners,

We hope you had a fun and productive summer season here in Big Sky! As the seasons change and we gear up for winter, we want to share the most up to date short-term rental data, along with our perspective on how it applies to the Big Sky market. This review provides an overview of Key Performance Indicator (KPI) trends for the summer months and the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Report Sections

Market Overview
Market KPIs
Looking Ahead
Glossary

Market Overview

The Big Sky vacation rental market saw mixed results during Q3 this year. Occupancy declined slightly while ADR increased, resulting in flat RevPAR vs. Q3 2024. These variances are attributed to a number of factors. First, guests continue to prioritize luxury homes offering experiences—and not solely accommodations—for their stay in Big Sky. This view is supported by Visit Big Sky’s Visa Vue Destination Insights that shows a modest increase in visitor spending while in-market despite the decline in occupancy.  Also, economic uncertainty continues to challenge the travel industry at large, with lower and middle-income families lacking the budget to travel. Meanwhile, higher-income families are still traveling and willing to pay for premium experiences. There are also homeowners—particularly of larger, high-end homes—who would rather forgo bookings than lower their rates to meet what the market will bear in the summer months.

The same trend is seen across the entire travel sector, including the commercial airlines. First class and premium cabin airfares are offsetting declines in economy airfares. Similarly, major hoteliers are offsetting revenue declines in their budget brands with increases in their luxury and full-service brands. 

Q3 2025 Key Performance Indicators  

The Data

The data below was sourced from Key Data, a third-party short-term rental analytics provider sourcing authoritative data from 10 property managers and from privately managed rentals with +/- 1,350 properties—all of which are located within the BSRAD boundary. Key Data refers to the market within the BSRAD boundary as Greater Big Sky. 

Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Average Daily Rate (ADR) Q3 2025 Big Sky

 

Average Daily Rate (ADR):

The Big Sky market saw a 12.6% year-over-year increase in ADR for the third quarter of 2025. This is a reflection of more modern, luxury properties entering the short-term rental market, as well as a reflection of travelers prioritizing luxury properties and experiences.

Market Occupancy

Adjusted Occupancy Rate Q3 2025 Big Sky

 

Big Sky Market Occupancy:

The Big Sky short-term rental market saw a 11.4% decline in occupancy vs. Q3 2024.  International travel makes up a larger portion of Big Sky’s visitor base in the summer months, so one factor in the dip is the slight decline in overseas arrivals and the 30+% decline in Canadian travel to the U.S.  While high net worth domestic travelers are still visiting and spending in Big Sky, the current economic climate is impacting the lower and middle-income brackets and shifting their travel patterns. As a result, many are sticking closer to home. Additionally, short-term rental supply growth continues to outpace demand growth. It’s also important to note that, while the occupancy percentage declined by nearly 15%, the number of visitors to Big Sky and total short-term rental guests saw a significantly smaller drop.

Adjusted Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR)

RevPar Q3 2025 Big Sky

 

Big Sky Market RevPAR:

The Big Sky short-term rental market was essentially flat as compared to Q3 2024, with RevPAR dropping by only $1. This data point reinforces the view that, while occupancy has declined vs. Q3 2024, the market is generating higher value stays by addressing the needs of discerning luxury travelers. Property managers such as Natural Retreats who cater to luxury travelers, offering high-touch services and a portfolio of distinctive homes with sought-after amenities, are able to capitalize on the current trends in consumer behavior and travel patterns. Natural Retreats generated a Q3 RevPAR of $173 while the market as a whole generated $110.

Looking Ahead

Q4 2025 is currently pacing well ahead of Q3 2024. ADR and Occupancy are both up ~14%, with RevPAR up 30%. October and November are both relatively flat vs. 2024, with the bulk of the increase in rental performance coming in the second half of December.  Q1 2026 is also pacing modestly ahead of Q1 2025. Strong advanced bookings are a significant source of revenue for short-term rental owners and managers. Why? Guests are willing to pay more to lock in the ideal home for their visit rather than wait for rates to come down as the booking window shrinks. They don’t want to take their chances with what may or may not still be available at a later time. All signs point to another strong winter, so let’s all hope that the snow forecast holds true!

KEY-DATA KPI DEFINITIONS

Glossary

 

  • ADR (Average Daily Rate) measures the average Unit Revenue paid by guests for the Guest Nights in a given time period. ADR = Unit Revenue (Nightly) / Guest Nights.
  • Adjusted Paid Occupancy calculates the percentage of Guest Nights out of the total nights available for guests to book, or the Nights Available. Adjusted Paid Occupancy = Guest Nights / Nights Available.
  • Adjusted RevPAR (Revenue Per Available “Room”) is calculated by multiplying the Adjusted Paid Occupancy % by the ADR. A critical KPI for measuring revenue performance, Adjusted RevPAR takes into account both the average rate at which you booked the property (ADR) and the number of nights it was booked less owner nights and holds (Adjusted Paid Occupancy).  This provides a better indicator of overall performance when compared to looking at the ADR or the Occupancy alone. Adjusted RevPAR = Adjusted Paid Occupancy % x ADR (or) Total Unit Revenue / Total Available Paid Nights in a given period.
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Partner with Natural Retreats

We’re actively seeking partnerships with real estate professionals who want to bring added value to their clients. Whether your buyers are exploring vacation home investment or sellers need a compelling income story, we are here to help with:

  • Complimentary revenue projections
  • Pre-market rental assessments
  • Seamless onboarding for new homeowner clients
  • Consultation of current short-term rental regulations

 

At Natural Retreats, we provide expert vacation rental management designed to drive returns and preserve property value. We're actively partnering with local agents to help buyers and sellers unlock the full potential of short-term rentals.

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Vacation Rental Management

Discover how partnering with Natural Retreats can help you succeed. Our Homeowner Experience Guide includes all you need to know about vacation rental management in destinations.

 

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